Smoking and obesity are independent predictors of mortality, but smoking and being obese especially increases the mortality risk as per The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition.
Obese smokers have a six to eight times greater risk of dying compared with normal weight people who never smoke.
Among smokers with a large waist, the risk of dying is five times greater than among people with the smallest waists who never smoke.
If you are overweight and smoke, fixing either one can markedly improve your chances for a normal life span. Fix both, and the probability of benefit is huge.
If one is obese and smokes and has to choose between weight loss and smoking cessation to improve health, the latter will have a greater protective effect. Smoking cessation is associated with significantly lower mortality risk in every weight group. Smoking cessation has a great effect on lowering risk of dying, one which far outweighs the slight increased risk from the associated increase in weight.

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